Are Europe and the US still allies? Marek Vranka from ICSJ takes part in a study exploring NATO's credibility in the eyes of the public

Researcher Marek Vranka from ICSJ FSV UK is contributing to the MICROCODE project led by Michal Smetana (IMS FSV UK), which is supported by the prestigious ERC Starting Grant. This five-year project investigates how the perceived credibility of collective defense commitments in military alliances such as NATO is formed and changes over time. The first results were recently published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an online journal dedicated to analyzing urgent global threats.

"The initial findings are alarming: both U.S. allies and adversaries increasingly believe that the United States will not honor its security commitments to NATO allies. This should concern not only European leaders but also U.S. officials," the research team writes.

In the MICROCODE project, Michal Smetana, Marek Vranka, and Ondřej Rosendorf from Charles University, along with Lauren Sukin from the London School of Economics, use advanced experimental methods, international survey data, and political psychology theory to better understand the interaction between public opinion and key defense decisions. This research is a significant step toward strengthening stability and trust within international military alliances.